📚アイデア - Book Lovers' Salon

テクノロジー関係の役立ちそうなリンクを貼っておきます。順次更新予定

こういう記事を見るときには、ただ文字・情報を追うのじゃなくて、ものすごく知恵を振り絞って全体の連関の見取り図を自分で作りながらやらないと、多分無益になる。という戒めを自戒として掲げておきます。

GENERAL TRENDS:

http://www.kurzweilai.net

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

2013年に発表されてから、何回も何回も引用されているので茶の間でお馴染みの詳細な予測。700の職業の趨勢を予想して50%が近く10-20年以内に消失するとしたこのオックスフォードの研究者の論文はかなり参考になるはず。どっかに翻訳が落ちてるかも知んない。

オックスフォード大学が認定あと10年で「消える職業」「なくなる仕事」（週刊現代） | 現代ビジネス | 講談社（1/5）

日本語記事。正直見るのは時間の無駄だと思うけど、一応載せときます。

マッキンゼーの研究機関が今後のテクノロジーの12の破壊的トレンドを予測。このページから長いレポートがダウンロードできる

僕たちがこれからお世話になるだろうテクノロジー情勢の調査会社ガートナーが、来年のテクノロジートレンド10を予測

http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/the-great-decoupling
ロバートシラーのインタビュー。保険制度を構築しないととんでもないことになるという危機感。"I think it’s the most important problem facing the world today. It’s associated with income inequality, but it may be more than that. Since we tend to define ourselves by our intellectual talents, it’s also a question of personal identity. Who am I? Intellectual talents are being replaced by computers. That’s a frightening thing for most people. It’s an issue with deep philosophical implications." そして、新たな保険産業の樹立が必要と説く。"I think we could have a much more comprehensive system of wage insurance. And we can do it without moral hazard if we manage it right."

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/01/business/economy/universal-basic-income-poverty.html

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-forces-shaping-the-future-of-work/

A WORLD WITHOUT WORK:

https://hbr.org/2014/12/what-happens-to-society-when-robots-replace-workers

AIがくる！だから落ちこぼれる人間たちを教育してしばき上げてあげないと！じゃなくて、そういうのはエクスポネンシャルテクノロジーの前では政策として無力なんだから、それに今後世界の政府形態はそんな巨大なものになりそうにないから、本当に必要なのは僕ら個人個人の思考様式の変化なのじゃないかという話。

"Ultimately, we need a new, individualized, cultural, approach to the meaning of work and the purpose of life. Otherwise, people will find a solution – human beings always do – but it may not be the one for which we began this technological revolution."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/scott-santens/a-future-without-jobs-doe_b_8254836.html

"Traditionally speaking, most of the work going on around us is only considered work, if one gets paid to do it. Are you a parent? Sorry, that’s not work. Are you in paid childcare? Congratulations, that’s work. Are you an open source programmer? Sorry, that’s not work. Are you a paid software engineer? Congratulations, that’s work.

It was the context of all this unpaid work at a conference focused on what happens in an entirely possible future where we all find it extremely difficult as humans to be paid for our work, that I think really brings clarity to the world we have to look forward to."

非常に面白い。

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/world-without-work/395294/

長い記事だけど、有益。https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hzQq8pxgxkXD0VyMYU6e8_K--VACLLzUoDLy9voOIiU/edit?usp=sharing

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/10/the-robot-paradox/505973/

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/06/would-a-world-without-work-be-so-bad/488711/

"But it doesn’t necessarily follow from findings like these that a world without work would be filled with malaise. Such visions are based on the downsides of being unemployed in a society built on the concept of employment. In the absence of work, a society designed with other ends in mind could yield strikingly different circumstances for the future of labor and leisure." 現在は社会全体が「仕事」を中心に設計されているが、今後は新しい中心軸を設定するようになるはずという（この視点はすごく大事。はてはて、僕らの社会は何を中心に構成されてると思う？人々がそれに気づいているかどうかは問題じゃない）。そして「仕事」中心の様を例示する。"Work-free societies are more than just a thought experiment—they’ve existed throughout human history." 歴史的経緯。"While many may consider work a staple of human life, work as it exists today is a relatively new invention in the course of thousands of years of human culture. “We think it’s bad to just sit around with nothing to do,” says Everett." "When people ponder the nature of a world without work, they often transpose present-day assumptions about labor and leisure onto a future where they might no longer apply; if automation does end up rendering a good portion of human labor unnecessary, such a society might exist on completely different terms than societies do today."

そしてそういう世界をほんの少しだけ紹介。学校教育と社会生活が全く変わったものになる可能性。"In general, without work, Gray thinks people would be more likely to pursue their passions, get involved in the arts, and visit friends. Perhaps leisure would cease to be about unwinding after a period of hard work, and would instead become a more colorful, varied thing. “We wouldn’t have to be as self-oriented as we think we have to be now,” he says. “I believe we would become more human.”"というややお花畑な締め。

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/08/robots-technology-industrial-strategy

"Never have we seen such a change in the landscape of the labour market. I believe the potential consequences to be so great that we should regard automation as the most urgent issue facing the country. So why isn’t the government addressing it?" "There is no minister for this new technology. No special cabinet committee has been set up to come up with solutions. There is no royal commission to look at the economic impact robots will have, or the ethical dilemmas they will pose. Where is the new institution that brings together trades unions, employers and government to establish how the time liberated and wealth created by robots is equitably shared?" 口角泡が飛ぶ。労働党ならやってくれると期待。